# Win Rate & EDGE Alerts

A winning trade at RIGGED AI is when an option alert returns 100%+ at any time during the session, without any consideration for drawdown.

Win Rate (WR) is calculated at the time of the alert using historical returns of similar option flow and other factors and displayed as a percentage.

The statistical significance of the win rate is indicated by the color.

If the win rate probability is random, the percentage will be colored in green.

0 - 30% - White

30 - 50% - <mark style="color:green;">Green</mark>

50%+ - <mark style="background-color:green;">Green with Green BG</mark>

<figure><img src="/files/syDgqH7hyTHoGMZisJs2" alt=""><figcaption></figcaption></figure>

If the win rate is statistically significant (expected to keep winning at the same rate), then the alert is tagged <mark style="background-color:blue;">EDGE</mark> and colored in <mark style="color:blue;">blue</mark>.

These are called [EDGE alerts](#edge-alerts).

<figure><img src="/files/eDcrYnT304dWAYFNZSFj" alt=""><figcaption></figcaption></figure>

{% hint style="info" %}
EDGE alerts have a reliable win rate, 55.56% = 55.56%

GREEN alerts *could* win at WR or the results could be random
{% endhint %}

***

### 30-Day Win Rate (30D):

Markets trend up and they trend down.

WR is limited because it's the average of multiple market cycles; bull and bear.

Traders can use the 30D (30-Day Win Rate) to help gauge which direction the market is trending.&#x20;

If the 30D percentage is high, it's a reliable indicator that the trade will win.

{% hint style="info" %}
30D WR batches option alerts based on side (bull or bear) and time. This has more results and the numbers can be different than WR.
{% endhint %}

If there are none in the last 30 days, then it will show N/A.

**Low 30D WR:**

In the example below we see 50%+ WR EDGE, but the 30D is extremely low under 20% for each alert.

None of these alerts won, all of them go -99%.

<figure><img src="/files/oC9psx19kMGqHI6mCcFp" alt=""><figcaption></figcaption></figure>

That's not something we want to trade.

**WR and 30D Match:**

The next example we see the WR and 30D match, both are nearly identical.

<figure><img src="/files/dwN0y0FJRA7mxURDDNNo" alt=""><figcaption></figcaption></figure>

The results are completely different with 7/8 hitting a max gain over 100% and 1/8 at 98.50%.

**30D Summary:**

{% hint style="info" %}
Use 30D to determine which direction the market is trending

30D greater than or equal to WR = take the trade

30D significantly than WR = skip the trade
{% endhint %}

***

## Win Rate Summary:

Win Rate = 100%+ return at any point in the session, without a drawdown consideration.&#x20;

Alerts can return 100% quickly or drawdown -99% before returning 100% in the last 10 minutes of the session.

If the WR is GREEN, then the alert has zero probability.

If the WR is BLUE, then the alert has EDGE and will likely continue winning at the same rate.

30D is useful for determining market direction. If it's winning, we want to trade it.

**Trade tips:**

* look for a minimum of 40% win rate (green or blue)
* if the 30D is high, trade it

Remember past performance does not guarantee future results. Even a 50% WR EDGE will lose 50% of the time.

***

## Edge Alerts

Option alerts have EDGE when there is a statistical probability they will continue winning at the same rate.&#x20;

EDGE WR is reliable.

Historically EDGE alerts have significantly outperformed non-edge (ZERO) alerts.

Throughout the system everything EDGE is tagged in blue.

CHART VIEW:

<figure><img src="/files/o5l3UGVnd5hrj3gHNWtD" alt=""><figcaption></figcaption></figure>

{% hint style="info" %}
EDGE Alerts have a high win rate and probability.&#x20;

They are often the best trades to target.
{% endhint %}

***

## Use Win Rate to Guide Your Trading

Often RIGD AI will send bullish and bearish alerts within short timeframe. The market is lizard vs lizard pvp and the smarter (not necessarily bigger) lizard will win.

Traders can use win rate plus blue line to guide their decisions.&#x20;

[SPY 01/06/2025 ](https://app.rigged.ai/SPY/2025-01-06)is a great example of mixed option flow (alerts) and higher win rate alerts winning!

<figure><img src="/files/tuYKMrjtREPhE4GvMSK9" alt=""><figcaption></figcaption></figure>

The SPY BULLS are BL +2.82 (high) and WR is only 16%. They lose.

{% embed url="<https://youtu.be/DnPhjcEZ9JI>" %}


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