🦎KOMODO 2.0 & KTR
RIGGED alerts now include the win rate and statistical significance!
KOMODO 2.0 has officially launched on RIGGED!
KOMODO uses all 300 lines of RIGGED AI's historical data to give you an instant historical performance stats for every option alert.
Here's how we view them in order of importance: P, WR, then KTR.
P (probability) - the statistical significance of the data
There are three separate values:
EDGE - likely to perform at historical averages, likely not random
ADV - advantage, possible to perform at historical average, possibly not random.
ZERO - not enough data to determine whether random or not.
EDGE alerts are preferred and typically have a high win rate over 40%.
ADV alerts are not great and should probably only be KTR2 type of trades.
The majority of alerts will fall under ZERO which means the historical data should be treated as completely random and traders should fall back to TRADEABILITY.
WR (win rate) - how often this alert returns 100%
Every BULL or BEAR option alert includes a strike and strike price at the time of the alert. The alert is considered a "win" if the strike price hits a 100% return at any time during the session. Winning alerts do not factor in drawdown (loss) from the strike price.
There is significant variance in drawdown average.
Less than 10% of all option alerts with 50% WR (win rate) and EDGE (probability) are profitable from the time of the alert until a 100% gain.
Option prices can drawdown -95% or more and still return over 100% by the end of the session.
Traders who want to be successful using the RIGGED system should probably: ✅ Look to trade alerts with EDGE & HIGH WR
✅ Try to find a better entry on EDGE Alerts by using KTR.
Look at this example from 5/31/24 on QQQ there are 3 BULL BOMBS with 55.56% WR + EDGE, everything we like to take the trade.
However they all had massive drawdowns before eventually returning 370.26%, 227.86% and 113.16%.
Even though these alerts went to -90%, KOMODO still considers the option alert to be a win and the WR and EDGE will increase.
Because drawdown varies significantly for each alert and is not included in WR (win rate), traders should use KTR and KTR2 as potential entry targets.
If price moves in your direction and your entry is KTR and KTR2, trade gains can be many multiples higher than the start price return.
KOMODO TARGET RANGE (KTR + KTR2)
KTR is a range where for the average drawdown before the option alert wins (returns 100%+).
Traders can set limit orders anywhere between the low and high end.
It is best to use KTR when the option alert has:
🔵 EDGE (statistically probable)
🟢 ADV (almost statistically probable)
When P = ZERO, trades can still use KTR but may prefer the low end or even KTR2 since there is no statistical probability for the alert.
Here's an example of a 100% trade using KTR.
The option price may never enter KTR (always higher) or the option price may nuke below it.
Generally we prefer to set a tighter stop loss (-10%) for our KTR trades as this is the expected area where price bounces.
If we lose the trade, we'll look to re-enter if price moves in the necessary direction or if it's opposite we'll consider KTR2.
KTR Trade Strategy:
From the account page we like to use KOMODO only alerts and then 40% + WR for everything else.
This way we're only getting email notifications for high probability alerts.
We're going to post a few case studies but when a high WR alert with EDGE comes in you want to do the following:
1.) AM I LATE TO THE MOVE?
If price has moved 1-strike or greater in the last 30m to 1hr (not exact science) then you may be late to the move.
We like to use the blue line.
BULLS EDGE HIGH WR BL 0.50 - 1.50 = ✅ TRADE IT
BEARS EDGE HIGH WR BL -0.50 - -1.50 = ✅ TRADE IT
Anything beyond 2-strikes on NORMAL, HARD or NIGHTMARE, is LATE TO THE MOVE and you should move to KTR.
If you're not late, then we can enter small with limit orders and add to the position if the trade goes our way. We want a full size position at KTR.
Stop loss 10-20%
2.) SET KTR TARGETS
Remember KTR is the average drawdown for the alert.
If the alert wins at 64% rate, then the KTR win rate HAS to be significantly higher (we're working on tracking this now).
Here's a good example form 6/11/24 on SPY.
BL is 1.05, PS 4.03 a bit high, but we're not super late. KTR hits at 0.54 in 12 minutes after the alert is fired.
Your KTR returns are 250% to end the session.
Early results indicate that if KTR hits (price hits that range), then it either explodes out of it or nukes past it. Use a tight stop loss of 10% when entering KTR. You can always re-enter if you get stomped out.
ULTRA DEGEN MODE KTR2
KTR2 is half of KTR.
If we have an alert with a high WR (win rate) + 🔵 EDGE and are feeling extremely dangerous, then you can attempt KTR2.
Early indicators:
✅ Can be very useful for HIGH WR + EDGE alerts from the open session
✅ Often drawdown even lower, can set bids below KTR2 for the best entry
✅ Using a stoploss will likely limit gains, but every trader is different!
Here's an example from SPY 06/04/24 - the 10:00 BULL BOMB has a 48% WR and EDGE.
KTR is 0.61 - 0.67 - and if you entered in this area you would have been stopped out on the trade.
However KTR2 is 0.31 - 0.34.
It's a bull market and we're bullish, so we set a limit order for the 527c option at KTR2 0.32 with a 20% stop loss.
The order would have filled around 12:10 and the low price for the 527c option is 0.29 (only -9.38% down), so we are "in the trade".
The market moves up quickly from there and price action is supported by additional bullish flow (bombs + florbs).
Look at the difference between Start, KTR and KTR2 using 0.29 as the low, 2.20 as the high and 1.29 as the final price.
KTR2 is a MASSIVE winner.
Obviously this will not always work, but when it does you will win big.
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